To better understand the implications of COVID-19 to the HIV outcomes in the United States, we used a national-level compartmental model. We ran the model accounting for pandemic-related changes in behavior and HIV care provision and then ran the model again without those changes in a hypothetical comparator scenario. The COVID-19 scenario had lower ART adherence, viral suppression, and diagnosis rates compared with the comparator scenario, leading to higher incidence over the period 2020-30. Our analysis suggested that disruptions from COVID-19 may have led to sustained adverse effects on national HIV outcomes. These results underscore the need for increased HIV testing and care services to offset setbacks in the fight against HIV.
