Zhang Y, Mayorga M, Ivy J, Lich KH, Swann JL. Modeling the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 transmission in K-12 schools. Presented at the INFORMS Annual Meeting 2022; October 17, 2022. Indianapolis, IN.


In the US, children are at high risk of being exposed to COVID-19 due to low vaccination rates. Thus, non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) are important for controlling the spread of COVID-19 in K-12 schools. We developed a multi-grouped SEIR model and simulated the varied and layered mitigation strategies used by school districts during the pandemic. We analyzed the impact of different NPIs on COVID-19 transmission within K-12 schools. We find that masks, reducing contacts and weekly screening can greatly reduce new infections among students. Self-quarantining symptomatic infections and school closures are effective for decreasing semester-end infections but increase absenteeism.

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