Conjoint analysis is often used in pharmaceutical research. Due to the nature of product development in pharma, there is a strong demand for conjoint methods to deliver share predictions, in addition to utility estimates, sometimes three to five years prior to launch. The authors indicated that they typically see overestimation of share for new product entries using conjoint analysis. The overstatement of shares can often be 2x to 3x higher than market knowledge would suggest. The authors described their typical questionnaires, including how they strive to establish a realistic setting (asking the physician to consider a specific patient when completing choice tasks), the use of partial profiles if more than six attributes, and HB estimation to obtain individual-level estimates. In addition to those standard procedures, they establish a cut-off threshold, applied at the individual level, and external effects, also applied at the individual level, to reflect other market realities for releasing a new drug. The full model takes into account any reluctance the physician may have about prescribing a new drug and also the volume restriction that results from third party payers and/or a physician’s own consideration of what is a “fair” allocation among available product options. The amount of reduction depends upon such things as how serious and common the condition is, and the competitiveness of the market. The model still assumes 100% awareness of the new product, and the authors believe it represents an important step closer to predicting a realistic market share.
